ML Analysis — ST. JOSEPH HOSPITAL OF ORANGE
CCN 050069 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -37.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.2%, 19.4%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2926628.175 | -0.1564 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2125129.816 | +0.0762 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.753 | +0.0320 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 315.000 | -0.0259 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1650734.670 | +0.0258 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-37.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.777 | -0.234 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.191 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.226 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2125129.816 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 315.000 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: -37.7%
Projected margin: -37.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 169
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.226 | 0.288 | 6.2% | $4.9M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |