ML Analysis — OAK VALLEY DISTRICT HOSPITAL
CCN 050067 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.5%, 16.1%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2351568.571 | -0.0855 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2066622.000 | +0.0680 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 35.000 | +0.0177 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.213 | -0.0177 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-7.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.213 | +0.289 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.314 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2066622.000 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.363 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -13.8%
Projected margin: -7.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 81
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.213 | 0.712 | 49.8% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.363 | 0.477 | 11.4% | $967K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |