ML Analysis — SAN GORGONIO MEMORIAL
CCN 050054 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
31
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -28.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.9%, 16.7%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 991649.975 | -0.0820 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1271848.696 | +0.0475 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.164 | -0.0229 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 271031.505 | -0.0200 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.133 | +0.0197 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-22.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.273 | +0.234 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.191 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.164 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 991649.975 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 79.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: -28.3%
Projected margin: -22.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 150
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.273 | 0.729 | 45.6% | $3.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.164 | 0.371 | 20.7% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |