ML Analysis — SUMMIT MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050043 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.8%, 20.8%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1241461.196 | +0.0512 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 403.000 | -0.0397 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.999 | +0.0377 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1314380.382 | -0.0370 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 485050.547 | -0.0129 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.7%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P80. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.369 | +0.145 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.288 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 403.000 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.058 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1314380.382 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.362 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: 5.5%
Projected margin: 6.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 146
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.580 | 0.752 | 17.1% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.369 | 0.753 | 38.4% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.288 | 0.291 | 0.3% | $181K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |