ML Analysis — BRIDGEWAY HOSPITAL
CCN 044005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.3%, 14.3%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 156243.717 | -0.1986 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 151243.724 | +0.1855 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.337 | -0.0390 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 71264.392 | -0.0266 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0222 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.4%
Distress Risk
$1.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 156243.717 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.456 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.054 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.398 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.099 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 127.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.9M
Current margin: 3.2%
Projected margin: 12.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 33
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.456 | 0.743 | 28.7% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |