ML Analysis — CHI ST. VINCENT HOT SPRINGS REHABILI
CCN 043035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 27.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.1%, 29.5%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 377741.062 | +0.1576 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 520060.500 | -0.1479 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.677 | +0.0346 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.595 | +0.0305 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0222 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.7%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
49.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P98. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.879 | -0.328 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.677 | +0.137 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.739 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 520060.500 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.055 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: 27.4%
Projected margin: 49.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.207 | 0.580 | 37.4% | $5.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |