ML Analysis — CHI ST. VINCENT SHERWOOD REHABILITAT
CCN 043031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.6%, 27.0%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 313610.287 | -0.1767 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 257196.788 | +0.1725 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.664 | +0.0331 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.609 | +0.0315 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Occupancy | 0.918 | +0.0223 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.5%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P96. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.918 | -0.365 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.664 | +0.131 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 313610.287 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.644 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 80.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.088 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: 18.0%
Projected margin: 40.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.269 | 0.640 | 37.2% | $5.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |