ML Analysis — RH OF NORTHWESTARKANSAS LLC
CCN 042009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.7%, 17.9%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 410285.160 | -0.1632 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 404547.160 | +0.1543 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.056 | +0.0418 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.102 | -0.0299 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$464K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.102 | -0.119 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.598 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.450 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 410285.160 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $464K
Current margin: 1.4%
Projected margin: 5.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.102 | 0.489 | 38.6% | $464K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |