ML Analysis — SSH - FORT SMITH
CCN 042006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.3%, 17.3%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 338831.912 | -0.1732 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 292221.118 | +0.1682 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.087 | +0.0329 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 142822.702 | -0.0242 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.169 | -0.0224 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
33.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.422 | +0.096 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.484 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.169 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 338831.912 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: 13.8%
Projected margin: 33.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.422 | 0.598 | 17.7% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.516 | 0.559 | 4.3% | $640K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.169 | 0.488 | 32.0% | $431K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |