ML Analysis — IZARD REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 041306 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside23/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
9.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-19.2%, 37.4%]. P81 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 84426.240 | -0.2087 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 156024.040 | +0.1849 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 2.346 | +0.1034 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 1.231 | +0.0779 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.040 | +0.0465 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 66%Model predicts 66% probability of positive margin. Key drivers: Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
18.6%
Distress Risk
$7.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
286.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P100. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Moderate
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 2.346 | -1.690 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 84426.240 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.825 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.525 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.100 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.1M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 286.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.076 | 0.549 | 47.4% | $7.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |