ML Analysis — LEO N LEVI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 040132 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-34.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-62.7%, -6.1%]. P10 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 9321870.000 | -0.9442 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 8217932.000 | +0.9267 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 0.000 | -0.1016 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.500 | -0.0497 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Cost per Patient Day | 4660935.000 | -0.0351 | Higher Cost per Patient Day decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 8%Low turnaround probability (8%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.005 | +0.482 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.500 | +0.411 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 8217932.000 | -0.392 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.600 | +0.103 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 1.000 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -13.4%
Projected margin: 40.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 0
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.005 | 0.680 | 67.5% | $4.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |