ML Analysis — JEFFERSON REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 040071 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.6%, 14.0%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 823336.184 | -0.1055 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 986356.498 | +0.0826 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.501 | +0.0262 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.119 | +0.0238 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0222 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
56.2%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-16.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P53. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.346 | +0.166 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.205 | +0.116 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.239 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 823336.184 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 245.000 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.297 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: -19.8%
Projected margin: -16.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 20
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.498 | 0.674 | 17.6% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.239 | 0.341 | 10.3% | $2.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.346 | 0.704 | 35.8% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |