ML Analysis — FORREST CITY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 040019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.2%, 13.4%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 630222.938 | -0.1325 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 739046.354 | +0.1131 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.122 | +0.0228 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0222 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 213959.248 | -0.0219 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-6.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P39. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.339 | +0.172 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.190 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.191 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 630222.938 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.172 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -17.3%
Projected margin: -6.8%
Grade: B
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.339 | 0.662 | 32.2% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.191 | 0.489 | 29.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P70 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |