ML Analysis — PHOENIX MEDICAL PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL
CCN 034038 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 18.0%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 113985.458 | -0.2045 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 186199.208 | +0.1812 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 46039.846 | -0.0274 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.297 | -0.0252 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
58.3%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
21.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P92. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.297 | +0.208 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.404 | +0.113 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 113985.458 | +0.087 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.298 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 96.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.288 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 21.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.415 | 0.771 | 35.6% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.404 | 0.744 | 34.0% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.298 | 0.462 | 16.4% | $210K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |