ML Analysis — AVENIR BEHAVIORAL HEALTH CENTER
CCN 034035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 19.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.2%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 284316.875 | -0.1808 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 229422.969 | +0.1759 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.447 | -0.0707 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 220662.027 | -0.0216 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.776 | -0.233 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.184 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.548 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 284316.875 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 32.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 19.3%
Projected margin: 19.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |