ML Analysis — BHSM REHABILITATION
CCN 033042 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.0%, 27.6%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 448854.720 | +0.1489 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 530151.887 | -0.1464 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.124 | +0.0174 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 408481.510 | -0.0154 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.3%
Distress Risk
$3.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P67. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.770 | -0.228 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 530151.887 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.367 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 168.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.369 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.4M
Current margin: 15.3%
Projected margin: 19.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 44
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.632 | 0.837 | 20.5% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.369 | 0.391 | 2.2% | $226K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.770 | 0.781 | 1.1% | $69K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |