ML Analysis — SCOTTSDALE HRH
CCN 033038 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.7%, 26.9%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 529191.660 | -0.1466 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 511781.020 | +0.1411 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.847 | +0.0183 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 50.000 | +0.0154 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.7%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
13.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P76. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.847 | -0.299 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.011 | -0.077 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 529191.660 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.279 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.438 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: 3.3%
Projected margin: 13.6%
Grade: B
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.551 | 0.681 | 13.1% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.279 | 0.526 | 24.6% | $762K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |