ML Analysis — MOUNTAIN VALLEY REGIONAL REHABILITAT
CCN 033036 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.2%, 30.4%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 502216.954 | +0.1423 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 582450.454 | -0.1391 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.736 | +0.0412 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.575 | +0.0290 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.299 | -0.0279 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
30.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.781 | -0.238 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.594 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.736 | +0.164 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 582450.455 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 44.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: 13.8%
Projected margin: 30.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.406 | 0.686 | 28.1% | $4.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |