ML Analysis — SSH - TUCSON
CCN 032002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -18.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.1%, 21.5%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 270108.552 | -0.1827 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 319269.086 | +0.1648 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 110671.780 | -0.0253 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.122 | +0.0227 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
8.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.410 | +0.107 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.393 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 270108.552 | +0.077 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.202 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: -18.2%
Projected margin: 8.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.410 | 0.736 | 32.7% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.607 | 0.700 | 9.3% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.202 | 0.545 | 34.3% | $628K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |