ML Analysis — PAGE HOSPITAL
CCN 031304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
17
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-39.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-67.5%, -10.9%]. P9 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | -747309.080 | -0.3248 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 898243.240 | +0.0935 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.530 | -0.0534 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.000 | -0.0413 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.530 | +0.441 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.129 | +0.368 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | -747309.080 | +0.137 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.188 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |