ML Analysis — ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 030139 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.5%, 25.1%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2323468.780 | +0.1039 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2477758.960 | -0.1011 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.096 | +0.0303 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.163 | -0.0231 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.2%
Distress Risk
$7.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-0.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P78. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.215 | +0.126 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.163 | -0.092 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2323468.780 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.193 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.525 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.6M
Current margin: -6.6%
Projected margin: -0.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.163 | 0.526 | 36.3% | $4.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.592 | 0.681 | 9.0% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.525 | 0.723 | 19.8% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |