ML Analysis — HONORHEALTH SCOTTSDALE THOMPSON PEAK
CCN 030123 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.6%, 28.0%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.073 | +0.0369 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.162 | -0.0231 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.787 | +0.0096 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1591575.842 | +0.0081 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 49%Turnaround possible (49%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.5%
Distress Risk
$11.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
4.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P21. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.162 | -0.092 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.606 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.467 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.082 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 120.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1566074.900 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.4M
Current margin: -1.6%
Projected margin: 4.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.162 | 0.412 | 25.0% | $5.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.450 | 0.769 | 31.8% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.606 | 0.772 | 16.7% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |