ML Analysis — WESTERN ARIZONA REGIONAL MEDICAL CEN
CCN 030101 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
8.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 62.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-19.8%, 36.8%]. P80 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 467291.989 | +0.1466 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1229126.720 | -0.0489 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.054 | +0.0425 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.077 | -0.0327 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
68.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.077 | -0.130 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.540 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.303 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1229126.720 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 93.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.6M
Current margin: 62.0%
Projected margin: 68.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.077 | 0.462 | 38.4% | $5.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.540 | 0.744 | 20.4% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.697 | 0.771 | 7.4% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |