ML Analysis — BANNER BAYWOOD MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 030088 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
64
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health23/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
47.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 79.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [19.3%, 75.9%]. P100 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4300657.378 | +0.3799 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.583 | -0.1099 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 900351.954 | +0.0932 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2341057.618 | +0.0487 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
79.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P100. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4300657.378 | -0.161 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.132 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 323.000 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.544 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.284 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: 79.1%
Projected margin: 79.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.544 | 0.783 | 23.9% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.583 | 0.633 | 5.0% | $750K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |