ML Analysis — SAMUEL SIMMONDS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 021312 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-55.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-84.0%, -27.4%]. P0 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 10509001.000 | -1.0905 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 5784596.600 | +0.5870 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1871673.585 | +0.0331 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.611 | +0.0272 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 2%Low turnaround probability (2%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.8%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-39.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P100. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AK distress rate: 38.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 5784596.600 | -0.248 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.308 | +0.219 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.324 | +0.187 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.611 | +0.108 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.402 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -39.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 616
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.290 | 0.596 | 30.6% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.324 | 0.445 | 12.1% | $799K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.611 | 0.716 | 10.5% | $711K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |