ML Analysis — HILL CREST HOSPITAL
CCN 014000 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.5%, 17.1%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 210282.592 | -0.1911 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 198801.214 | +0.1797 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.316 | -0.0330 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 142328.790 | -0.0242 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.677 | -0.141 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 210282.592 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.317 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 103.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: 5.5%
Projected margin: 12.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.317 | 0.636 | 31.9% | $807K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.677 | 0.777 | 10.0% | $660K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |