ML Analysis — BROOKWOOD BAPTIST MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 010139 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.0%, 13.6%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 710602.674 | -0.1213 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 733489.312 | +0.1138 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 429.000 | -0.0437 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.058 | +0.0414 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.061 | +0.0392 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.2%
Distress Risk
$12.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P92. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.372 | +0.142 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.090 | -0.124 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.210 | +0.121 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 710602.674 | +0.051 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 429.000 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.147 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.1M
Current margin: -3.2%
Projected margin: 0.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 19
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.090 | 0.344 | 25.4% | $9.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.372 | 0.791 | 41.9% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.643 | 0.663 | 2.0% | $295K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |