ML Analysis — NORTH BALDWIN INFIRMARY
CCN 010129 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.9%, 16.7%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 35.000 | +0.0177 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 653390.045 | -0.0073 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.224 | -0.0066 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.8%
Distress Risk
$950K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P25. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.413 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.120 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.247 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.355 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1580283.571 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $950K
Current margin: -3.2%
Projected margin: -1.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.355 | 0.450 | 9.6% | $620K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.413 | 0.464 | 5.0% | $330K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |