PROVIDENCE ST. PETER HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
PROVIDENCE ST. PETER HOSPITAL is a 310-bed suburban community hospital in THURSTON, WA with $540.5M in net patient revenue and a -14.3% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 30.5% Medicare, 1.9% Medicaid, and 67.6% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $39.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -14.3% to -6.9% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $540.5M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-77.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -14.3% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 99.2% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.7M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 23.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | 35.8% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
WA has 104 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -10.3%. The target's margin of -14.3% places it below the state median. Among 27 size-comparable peers (155-620 beds), the median margin is -11.0%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (155-620), prioritizing same-state peers. 27 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROVIDENCE ST. PETER HOSPITAL (Target) | WA | 310 | $540.5M | -14.3% |
| UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON MED C | WA | 592 | $2.02B | -14.4% |
| SEATTLE CHILDRENS HOSPITAL | WA | 350 | $1.70B | 5.7% |
| SWEDISH MEDICAL CENTER | WA | 603 | $1.37B | -15.2% |
| TACOMA GENERAL ALLENMORE HOSPI | WA | 374 | $1.33B | 5.1% |
| HARBORVIEW MEDICAL CENTER | WA | 406 | $1.20B | -11.3% |
| VIRGINIA MASON MEDICAL CENTER | WA | 222 | $1.11B | -23.2% |
| PROV SACRED HEART MEDICAL CENT | WA | 609 | $945.8M | -24.3% |
| PROV REGL MED CENTER EVERETT | WA | 548 | $825.5M | -19.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $39.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $11.4M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $10.8M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $10.7M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $6.6M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $346K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-77.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$39.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-37.3M |
| Current Margin | -14.3% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -6.9% |
| WC Released (1x) | $20.7M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-118.6M | $-110.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-118.6M | $-160.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-106.7M | $-67.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-106.7M | $-105.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-130.5M | $-271.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-130.5M | $-340.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 27 hospitals with 155-620 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=28)
- Comp margins: P25=-15.0% / P50=-11.0% / P75=-5.1%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.