PROVIDENCE CENTRALIA HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
PROVIDENCE CENTRALIA HOSPITAL is a 116-bed suburban community hospital in LEWIS, WA with $240.6M in net patient revenue and a -0.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 31.9% Medicare, 1.7% Medicaid, and 66.4% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $17.7M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -0.5% to 6.8% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $240.6M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-1.3M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -0.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 56.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.1M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 23.5% |
| Distress Probability ML | 44.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
WA has 104 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -10.3%. The target's margin of -0.5% places it above the state median. Among 32 size-comparable peers (58-232 beds), the median margin is -10.4%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (58-232), prioritizing same-state peers. 32 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROVIDENCE CENTRALIA HOSPITAL (Target) | WA | 116 | $240.6M | -0.5% |
| VIRGINIA MASON MEDICAL CENTER | WA | 222 | $1.11B | -23.2% |
| ST. JOSEPH MEDICAL CENTER | WA | 208 | $750.0M | 1.9% |
| CENTRAL WASHINGTON HOSPITAL | WA | 176 | $550.9M | -2.0% |
| YAKIMA VALLEY MEMORIAL HOSPITA | WA | 208 | $522.3M | -10.4% |
| LEGACY SALMON CREEK HOSPITAL | WA | 178 | $479.7M | -5.2% |
| SWEDISH MEDICAL CENTER CHERRY | WA | 181 | $463.4M | -15.0% |
| PHD#1 DBA SKAGIT VALLEY HOSPI | WA | 137 | $414.3M | -17.9% |
| ST. JOHN MEDICAL CENTER | WA | 122 | $335.0M | -4.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $17.7M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $5.1M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $4.8M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $4.8M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $2.9M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $154K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-1.3M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$17.7M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $16.5M |
| Current Margin | -0.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 6.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $9.2M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-1.9M | $168.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-1.9M | $185.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-1.7M | $242.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-1.7M | $264.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-2.1M | $80.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-2.1M | $88.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 32 hospitals with 58-232 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=33)
- Comp margins: P25=-21.4% / P50=-10.4% / P75=-2.4%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.