JOHN RANDOLPH MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
JOHN RANDOLPH MEDICAL CENTER is a 107-bed suburban community hospital in nan, VA with $119.0M in net patient revenue and a 20.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 31.0% Medicare, 3.3% Medicaid, and 65.7% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $8.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 20.5% to 27.9% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $119.0M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $24.4M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 20.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 46.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.1M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 9.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | 46.7% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
VA has 111 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of 4.4%. The target's margin of 20.5% places it above the state median. Among 52 size-comparable peers (54-214 beds), the median margin is 5.5%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (54-214), prioritizing same-state peers. 52 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN RANDOLPH MEDICAL CENTER (Target) | VA | 107 | $119.0M | 20.5% |
| CHILDRENS HOSPITAL OF THE KING | VA | 202 | $546.2M | -9.9% |
| INOVA LOUDOUN HOSPITAL CENTER | VA | 189 | $510.3M | 22.9% |
| RESTON HOSPITAL | VA | 201 | $385.5M | 34.6% |
| INOVA FAIR OAKS HOSPITAL | VA | 174 | $382.5M | 28.5% |
| SENTARA MARTHA JEFFERSON HOSPI | VA | 150 | $362.0M | -6.4% |
| SENTARA PRINCESS ANNE HOSPITAL | VA | 174 | $361.5M | 10.3% |
| MARYVIEW HOSPITAL | VA | 160 | $348.0M | -2.5% |
| ST. FRANCIS MEDICAL CENTER | VA | 128 | $339.6M | 8.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $8.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $2.5M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $2.4M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $2.4M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.4M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $76K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $24.4M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$8.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $33.2M |
| Current Margin | 20.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 27.9% |
| WC Released (1x) | $4.6M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $37.5M | $248.6M | 6.62x | 46.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $37.5M | $285.6M | 7.61x | 50.1% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $33.8M | $326.7M | 9.67x | 57.4% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $33.8M | $366.4M | 10.84x | 61.1% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $41.3M | $192.6M | 4.66x | 36.1% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $41.3M | $225.2M | 5.45x | 40.4% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 52 hospitals with 54-214 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=53)
- Comp margins: P25=-8.0% / P50=5.5% / P75=15.6%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.