UPMC JAMESON
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
UPMC JAMESON is a 134-bed under-performing / distressed in nan, PA with $115.1M in net patient revenue and a -30.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 21.7% Medicare, 1.0% Medicaid, and 77.2% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $8.5M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -30.0% to -22.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $115.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-34.5M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -30.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 56.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $859K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 23.9% |
| Distress Probability ML | 45.7% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
PA has 225 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -4.4%. The target's margin of -30.0% places it below the state median. Among 107 size-comparable peers (67-268 beds), the median margin is -6.2%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (67-268), prioritizing same-state peers. 107 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPMC JAMESON (Target) | PA | 134 | $115.1M | -30.0% |
| WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOSPITAL | PA | 255 | $776.4M | 11.1% |
| COMMUNITY MEDICAL CENTER | PA | 266 | $474.1M | 3.1% |
| ROBERT PACKER HOSPITAL | PA | 252 | $471.8M | -2.1% |
| WILLIAMSPORT HOSPITAL & MEDICA | PA | 227 | $459.8M | -8.4% |
| MOUNT NITTANY MEDICAL CENTER | PA | 248 | $441.7M | 12.6% |
| MEMORIAL MEDICAL CENTER | PA | 241 | $435.1M | -21.2% |
| THE CHAMBERSBURG HOSPITAL | PA | 234 | $435.1M | 5.2% |
| ST LUKE HOSPITAL ANDERSON CAMP | PA | 193 | $433.0M | 20.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $8.5M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $2.4M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $2.3M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $2.3M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.4M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $74K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-34.5M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$8.5M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-26.0M |
| Current Margin | -30.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -22.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $4.4M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-53.0M | $-142.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-53.0M | $-174.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-47.7M | $-163.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-47.7M | $-192.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-58.4M | $-167.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-58.4M | $-203.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 107 hospitals with 67-268 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=108)
- Comp margins: P25=-18.1% / P50=-6.2% / P75=5.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.