ST. JOHN REHABILITATION HOSPITAL AN
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ST. JOHN REHABILITATION HOSPITAL AN is a 60-bed suburban community hospital in TULSA, OK with $31.4M in net patient revenue and a 16.1% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 53.0% Medicare, 14.3% Medicaid, and 32.7% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $2.3M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 16.1% to 23.4% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $31.4M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $5.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 16.1% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 97.8% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $523K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 59.1% |
| Distress Probability ML | 44.8% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
OK has 147 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -8.8%. The target's margin of 16.1% places it above the state median. Among 66 size-comparable peers (30-120 beds), the median margin is -4.4%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (30-120), prioritizing same-state peers. 66 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. JOHN REHABILITATION HOSPIT (Target) | OK | 60 | $31.4M | 16.1% |
| OKLAHOMA HEART HOSPITAL | OK | 97 | $342.0M | -2.8% |
| STILLWATER MEDICAL CENTER | OK | 52 | $270.2M | -9.9% |
| SAINT FRANCIS HOSPITAL SOUTH | OK | 104 | $198.3M | 34.4% |
| ST ANTHONY SHAWNEE HOSPITAL | OK | 57 | $169.2M | -6.1% |
| MCBRIDE CLINIC ORTHOPEDIC HOSP | OK | 68 | $166.9M | -5.0% |
| OKLAHOMA HEART HOSPITAL SOUTH | OK | 43 | $148.5M | -0.6% |
| OKLAHOMA SURGICAL HOSPITAL | OK | 74 | $146.2M | 17.7% |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | OK | 45 | $143.9M | 21.7% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $2.3M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $659K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $627K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $621K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $382K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $20K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $5.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$2.3M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $7.3M |
| Current Margin | 16.1% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 23.4% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.2M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $7.7M | $56.3M | 7.27x | 48.7% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $7.7M | $64.4M | 8.32x | 52.8% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $7.0M | $74.6M | 10.70x | 60.6% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $7.0M | $83.4M | 11.97x | 64.3% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $8.5M | $42.2M | 4.96x | 37.7% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $8.5M | $49.2M | 5.78x | 42.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 66 hospitals with 30-120 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=67)
- Comp margins: P25=-20.9% / P50=-4.4% / P75=6.1%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.