GRADY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
GRADY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL is a 48-bed rural/critical access in GRADY, OK with $45.1M in net patient revenue and a -15.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 46.3% Medicare, 13.8% Medicaid, and 39.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $3.3M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -15.5% to -8.1% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $45.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-7.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -15.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 23.2% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $940K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 32.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | 58.0% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
OK has 147 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -8.8%. The target's margin of -15.5% places it below the state median. Among 90 size-comparable peers (24-96 beds), the median margin is -9.7%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (24-96), prioritizing same-state peers. 90 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRADY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL (Target) | OK | 48 | $45.1M | -15.5% |
| STILLWATER MEDICAL CENTER | OK | 52 | $270.2M | -9.9% |
| ST ANTHONY SHAWNEE HOSPITAL | OK | 57 | $169.2M | -6.1% |
| MCBRIDE CLINIC ORTHOPEDIC HOSP | OK | 68 | $166.9M | -5.0% |
| OKLAHOMA HEART HOSPITAL SOUTH | OK | 43 | $148.5M | -0.6% |
| OKLAHOMA SURGICAL HOSPITAL | OK | 74 | $146.2M | 17.7% |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | OK | 45 | $143.9M | 21.7% |
| NORTHEASTERN HEALTH SYSTEM | OK | 80 | $134.6M | -9.6% |
| INTEGRIS HEALTH EDMOND | OK | 77 | $119.4M | -3.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.3M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $948K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $903K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $894K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $549K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $29K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-7.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.3M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-3.7M |
| Current Margin | -15.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -8.1% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.7M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-10.7M | $-12.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-10.7M | $-17.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-9.7M | $-10.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-9.7M | $-13.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-11.8M | $-25.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-11.8M | $-32.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 23.2%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 58.0% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 90 hospitals with 24-96 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=91)
- Comp margins: P25=-23.4% / P50=-9.7% / P75=2.9%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.