REGENCY HOSPITAL OF NORTH CENTRAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
REGENCY HOSPITAL OF NORTH CENTRAL is a 87-bed suburban community hospital in CUYAHOGA, OH with $51.5M in net patient revenue and a 7.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 37.5% Medicare, 8.5% Medicaid, and 54.0% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $3.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 7.0% to 14.4% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $51.5M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $3.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 7.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 66.6% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $592K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 11.7% |
| Distress Probability ML | 44.6% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
OH has 235 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.3%. The target's margin of 7.0% places it above the state median. Among 97 size-comparable peers (44-174 beds), the median margin is 2.4%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (44-174), prioritizing same-state peers. 97 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REGENCY HOSPITAL OF NORTH CENT (Target) | OH | 87 | $51.5M | 7.0% |
| DUBLIN METHODIST HOSPITAL | OH | 110 | $333.9M | 28.4% |
| JEWISH HOSPITAL OF CINCINNATI | OH | 170 | $333.6M | -5.9% |
| WEST CHESTER HOSPITAL LLC | OH | 163 | $318.7M | -12.3% |
| BLANCHARD VALLEY REG. HEALTH C | OH | 152 | $310.1M | 22.8% |
| DOCTORS HOSPITAL | OH | 173 | $309.1M | 1.5% |
| SOIN MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 120 | $256.3M | -1.3% |
| LIMA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | OH | 110 | $253.5M | 6.4% |
| UH AHUJA MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 153 | $249.4M | 3.3% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.1M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.0M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.0M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $627K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $33K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $3.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $7.4M |
| Current Margin | 7.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 14.4% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.0M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $5.6M | $61.8M | 11.09x | 61.8% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $5.6M | $69.8M | 12.52x | 65.8% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $5.0M | $84.2M | 16.77x | 75.8% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $5.0M | $93.3M | 18.59x | 79.4% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $6.1M | $41.1M | 6.69x | 46.3% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $6.1M | $47.2M | 7.69x | 50.4% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 97 hospitals with 44-174 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=98)
- Comp margins: P25=-11.7% / P50=2.4% / P75=9.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.