BAY PARK COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
BAY PARK COMMUNITY HOSPITAL is a 77-bed suburban community hospital in LUCAS, OH with $108.9M in net patient revenue and a 9.7% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 19.9% Medicare, 8.6% Medicaid, and 71.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $8.0M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 9.7% to 17.1% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $108.9M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $10.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 9.7% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 46.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.4M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 21.1% |
| Distress Probability ML | 48.3% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
OH has 235 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.3%. The target's margin of 9.7% places it above the state median. Among 99 size-comparable peers (38-154 beds), the median margin is 2.4%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (38-154), prioritizing same-state peers. 99 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY PARK COMMUNITY HOSPITAL (Target) | OH | 77 | $108.9M | 9.7% |
| DUBLIN METHODIST HOSPITAL | OH | 110 | $333.9M | 28.4% |
| BLANCHARD VALLEY REG. HEALTH C | OH | 152 | $310.1M | 22.8% |
| SOIN MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 120 | $256.3M | -1.3% |
| LIMA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | OH | 110 | $253.5M | 6.4% |
| UH AHUJA MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 153 | $249.4M | 3.3% |
| FIRELANDS REGIONAL MEDICAL CEN | OH | 146 | $238.4M | -13.9% |
| UH REGIONAL HOSPITALS | OH | 144 | $214.6M | -21.6% |
| UH ST. JOHN MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 126 | $210.9M | 6.5% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $8.0M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $2.3M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $2.2M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $2.2M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.3M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $70K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $10.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$8.0M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $18.6M |
| Current Margin | 9.7% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 17.1% |
| WC Released (1x) | $4.2M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $16.3M | $150.1M | 9.20x | 55.9% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $16.3M | $170.4M | 10.45x | 59.9% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $14.7M | $202.1M | 13.77x | 69.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $14.7M | $224.8M | 15.32x | 72.6% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $17.9M | $104.7M | 5.84x | 42.3% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $17.9M | $121.0M | 6.74x | 46.5% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 99 hospitals with 38-154 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=100)
- Comp margins: P25=-12.7% / P50=2.4% / P75=10.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.