BRUNSWICK COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
BRUNSWICK COMMUNITY HOSPITAL is a 65-bed suburban community hospital in BRUNSWICK, NC with $143.2M in net patient revenue and a 12.9% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 39.4% Medicare, 4.0% Medicaid, and 56.6% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $10.5M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 12.9% to 20.3% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $143.2M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $18.5M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 12.9% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 76.4% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.2M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 25.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | 40.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NC has 129 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -2.0%. The target's margin of 12.9% places it above the state median. Among 51 size-comparable peers (32-130 beds), the median margin is -2.6%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (32-130), prioritizing same-state peers. 51 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRUNSWICK COMMUNITY HOSPITAL (Target) | NC | 65 | $143.2M | 12.9% |
| ATRIUM HEALTH UNIVERSITY CITY | NC | 104 | $286.9M | 28.6% |
| ADVENTHEALTH HENDERSONVILLE | NC | 73 | $227.1M | -4.1% |
| THOMASVILLE MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 73 | $220.3M | -14.3% |
| SCOTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | NC | 104 | $198.0M | -2.8% |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 | $187.3M | 2.4% |
| CARTERET COUNTY GENERAL HOSPIT | NC | 99 | $187.2M | 6.4% |
| HAYWOOD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTE | NC | 121 | $148.2M | -2.6% |
| ATRIUM HEALTH LINCOLN | NC | 101 | $144.6M | 22.2% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $10.5M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $3.0M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $2.9M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $2.8M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.7M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $92K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $18.5M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$10.5M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $29.1M |
| Current Margin | 12.9% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 20.3% |
| WC Released (1x) | $5.5M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $28.5M | $227.6M | 7.99x | 51.5% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $28.5M | $259.6M | 9.11x | 55.6% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $25.6M | $303.6M | 11.84x | 63.9% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $25.6M | $338.8M | 13.21x | 67.6% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $31.3M | $165.6M | 5.28x | 39.5% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $31.3M | $192.4M | 6.14x | 43.8% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 51 hospitals with 32-130 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=52)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.7% / P50=-2.6% / P75=9.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.