NORTHERN HOSP OF SURRY CO
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
NORTHERN HOSP OF SURRY CO is a 100-bed under-performing / distressed in SURRY, NC with $97.1M in net patient revenue and a -24.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 30.4% Medicare, 2.7% Medicaid, and 66.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $7.1M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -24.5% to -17.2% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $97.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-23.8M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -24.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 49.5% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $971K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 38.1% |
| Distress Probability ML | 49.3% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NC has 129 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -2.0%. The target's margin of -24.5% places it below the state median. Among 59 size-comparable peers (50-200 beds), the median margin is -1.2%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (50-200), prioritizing same-state peers. 59 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTHERN HOSP OF SURRY CO (Target) | NC | 100 | $97.1M | -24.5% |
| DUKE RALEIGH HOSPITAL | NC | 186 | $683.0M | 3.7% |
| CATAWBA VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 200 | $451.9M | 5.9% |
| MARGARET R. PARDEE MEMORIAL HO | NC | 160 | $341.3M | -5.7% |
| JOHNSTON HEALTH | NC | 179 | $331.7M | 9.6% |
| WAKE MED CARY HOSPITAL | NC | 189 | $318.1M | -3.6% |
| ATRIUM HEALTH UNION | NC | 183 | $302.3M | 7.0% |
| S.E. REGL MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 179 | $298.1M | -25.3% |
| ATRIUM HEALTH UNIVERSITY CITY | NC | 104 | $286.9M | 28.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $7.1M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $2.0M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.9M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.9M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.2M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $62K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-23.8M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$7.1M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-16.7M |
| Current Margin | -24.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -17.2% |
| WC Released (1x) | $3.7M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-36.6M | $-85.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-36.6M | $-106.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-33.0M | $-94.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-33.0M | $-112.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-40.3M | $-109.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-40.3M | $-133.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 59 hospitals with 50-200 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=60)
- Comp margins: P25=-8.1% / P50=-1.2% / P75=9.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.