MEDINA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
MEDINA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL is a 25-bed under-performing / distressed in ORLEANS, NY with $24.4M in net patient revenue and a -25.4% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 29.8% Medicare, 0.7% Medicaid, and 69.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $1.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -25.4% to -18.1% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $24.4M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-6.2M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -25.4% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 39.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $975K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 35.4% |
| Distress Probability ML | 50.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NY has 196 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -17.5%. The target's margin of -25.4% places it below the state median. Among 30 size-comparable peers (12-50 beds), the median margin is -17.6%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (12-50), prioritizing same-state peers. 30 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEDINA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL (Target) | NY | 25 | $24.4M | -25.4% |
| NEW YORK EYE AND EAR INFIRMARY | NY | 15 | $112.8M | -28.0% |
| CLAXTON HEPBURN MEDICAL CENTER | NY | 38 | $106.9M | -16.0% |
| ALICE HYDE MEDICAL CENTER | NY | 40 | $79.7M | -29.4% |
| LEWIS COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL | NY | 25 | $70.3M | -17.6% |
| JONES MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | NY | 49 | $60.7M | -22.3% |
| CARTHAGE AREA HOSPITAL | NY | 25 | $59.4M | -12.3% |
| WYOMING COUNTY COMMUNITY HOSPI | NY | 47 | $58.1M | -42.1% |
| SUNNYVIEW HOSPITAL AND REHABIL | NY | 17 | $56.6M | -9.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $1.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $512K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $487K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $483K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $297K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $16K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-6.2M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$1.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-4.4M |
| Current Margin | -25.4% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -18.1% |
| WC Released (1x) | $935K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-9.5M | $-23.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-9.5M | $-28.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-8.6M | $-25.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-8.6M | $-30.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-10.5M | $-28.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-10.5M | $-35.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 50.4% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 30 hospitals with 12-50 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=31)
- Comp margins: P25=-28.0% / P50=-17.6% / P75=-9.4%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.