GREYSTONE PARK PSYCH. HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
GREYSTONE PARK PSYCH. HOSPITAL is a 468-bed community hospital in MORRIS, NJ with $3.1M in net patient revenue and a -100.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 0.6% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 99.4% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $241K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -100.0% to -3653.7% (+782bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $3.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-112.8M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -100.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 76.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $7K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 100.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NJ has 95 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.9%. The target's margin of -100.0% places it below the state median. Among 34 size-comparable peers (234-936 beds), the median margin is -2.8%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (234-936), prioritizing same-state peers. 34 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GREYSTONE PARK PSYCH. HOSPITAL (Target) | NJ | 468 | $3.1M | -100.0% |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL | NJ | 779 | $2.00B | -2.5% |
| MORRISTOWN MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 705 | $1.70B | 10.3% |
| COOPER UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | NJ | 580 | $1.43B | 2.0% |
| ROBERT WOOD JOHNSON UNIVERSITY | NJ | 639 | $1.41B | -4.0% |
| JERSEY SHORE UNIVERSITY MED CT | NJ | 604 | $1.17B | 8.4% |
| COOPERMAN BARNABAS MEDICAL CEN | NJ | 554 | $1.07B | -4.3% |
| ENGLEWOOD HOSPITAL & MED CTR | NJ | 292 | $967.3M | 0.1% |
| WEST JERSEY HEALTH SYSTEM | NJ | 587 | $958.4M | 7.1% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $241K (782bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $68K | +219bp | 12mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $65K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $62K | +200bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $37K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +31bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-112.8M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$241K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-112.6M |
| Current Margin | -100.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -3653.7% |
| WC Released (1x) | $118K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-173.6M | $-741.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-173.6M | $-872.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-156.2M | $-927.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-156.2M | $-1.06B | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-190.9M | $-686.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-190.9M | $-817.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 34 hospitals with 234-936 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=35)
- Comp margins: P25=-9.1% / P50=-2.8% / P75=2.6%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.