ALLINA HEALTH FARIBAULT MEDICAL CTR
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ALLINA HEALTH FARIBAULT MEDICAL CTR is a 32-bed under-performing / distressed in RICE, MN with $53.6M in net patient revenue and a -12.9% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 30.6% Medicare, 14.5% Medicaid, and 54.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $3.9M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -12.9% to -5.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $53.6M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-6.9M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -12.9% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 34.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.7M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 36.7% |
| Distress Probability ML | 54.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MN has 141 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.6%. The target's margin of -12.9% places it below the state median. Among 81 size-comparable peers (16-64 beds), the median margin is -2.4%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (16-64), prioritizing same-state peers. 81 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLINA HEALTH FARIBAULT MEDICA (Target) | MN | 32 | $53.6M | -12.9% |
| GILLETTE CHILDRENS SPECIALTY H | MN | 60 | $266.7M | -6.3% |
| OLMSTED MEDICAL CENTER | MN | 61 | $217.6M | -13.6% |
| CUYUNA REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | MN | 25 | $180.8M | -4.0% |
| ST. MARYS REGIONAL HEALTH CENT | MN | 36 | $167.8M | 3.1% |
| MAYO CLINIC HEALTH SYSTEM - RE | MN | 27 | $149.3M | 1.8% |
| ESSENTIA HEALTH VIRGINIA | MN | 49 | $132.0M | -5.0% |
| NEW ULM MEDICAL CENTER | MN | 24 | $128.6M | 4.2% |
| LAKEWOOD HEALTH SYSTEM | MN | 25 | $124.7M | 0.2% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.9M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.1M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.1M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.1M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $652K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $34K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-6.9M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.9M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-3.0M |
| Current Margin | -12.9% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -5.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.1M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-10.7M | $-6.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-10.7M | $-10.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-9.6M | $-812K | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-9.6M | $-3.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-11.7M | $-22.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-11.7M | $-28.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 34.0%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 54.4% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 81 hospitals with 16-64 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=82)
- Comp margins: P25=-8.4% / P50=-2.4% / P75=2.9%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.