SANFORD REGIONAL HOSPITAL WORTHINGTO
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
SANFORD REGIONAL HOSPITAL WORTHINGTO is a 48-bed under-performing / distressed in NOBLES, MN with $55.5M in net patient revenue and a -6.3% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 29.9% Medicare, 27.0% Medicaid, and 43.1% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $4.1M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -6.3% to 1.0% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $55.5M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-3.5M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -6.3% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 21.5% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.2M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 37.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | 61.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MN has 141 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.6%. The target's margin of -6.3% places it below the state median. Among 59 size-comparable peers (24-96 beds), the median margin is -2.9%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (24-96), prioritizing same-state peers. 59 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANFORD REGIONAL HOSPITAL WORT (Target) | MN | 48 | $55.5M | -6.3% |
| LAKEVIEW MEMORIAL | MN | 68 | $411.9M | 60.9% |
| SANFORD BEMIDJI | MN | 94 | $312.6M | -19.6% |
| MAYO CLNIC HLTH SYS-ALBRT LEA | MN | 79 | $271.9M | -16.6% |
| GILLETTE CHILDRENS SPECIALTY H | MN | 60 | $266.7M | -6.3% |
| OLMSTED MEDICAL CENTER | MN | 61 | $217.6M | -13.6% |
| HEALTHEAST WOODWINDS HOSPITAL | MN | 86 | $210.3M | -5.5% |
| ST. FRANCIS REGIONAL MEDICAL C | MN | 89 | $192.5M | -0.8% |
| CUYUNA REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | MN | 25 | $180.8M | -4.0% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $4.1M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.2M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.1M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.1M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $675K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $36K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-3.5M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$4.1M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $577K |
| Current Margin | -6.3% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 1.0% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.1M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-5.4M | $17.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-5.4M | $17.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-4.9M | $29.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-4.9M | $30.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-5.9M | $-963K | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-5.9M | $-3.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (27.0%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 21.5%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 61.1% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 59 hospitals with 24-96 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=60)
- Comp margins: P25=-8.5% / P50=-2.9% / P75=2.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.