ST. JOHN BRIGHTON
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ST. JOHN BRIGHTON is a 99-bed community hospital in LIVINGSTON, MI with $13.1M in net patient revenue and a -13.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 12.5% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 87.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $963K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -13.0% to -5.6% (+738bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $13.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-1.7M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -13.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 47.1% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $132K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 66.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MI has 163 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -5.2%. The target's margin of -13.0% places it below the state median. Among 44 size-comparable peers (50-198 beds), the median margin is -3.6%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (50-198), prioritizing same-state peers. 44 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. JOHN BRIGHTON (Target) | MI | 99 | $13.1M | -13.0% |
| MYMICHIGAN MEDICAL CENTER MIDL | MI | 195 | $537.8M | -9.6% |
| HENRY FORD WEST BLOOMFIELD HOS | MI | 191 | $446.0M | 5.5% |
| MCLAREN GREATER LANSING | MI | 185 | $384.2M | -9.8% |
| MARQUETTE GENERAL HOSPITAL | MI | 163 | $350.8M | -11.5% |
| KARMANOS CANCER HOSPITAL | MI | 106 | $284.8M | -27.8% |
| ST. MARYS OF MICHIGAN | MI | 166 | $264.2M | -32.0% |
| HOLLAND HOSPITAL | MI | 189 | $262.3M | -7.2% |
| BRONSON BATTLE CREEK | MI | 144 | $251.8M | -27.7% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $963K (738bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $274K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $261K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $260K | +199bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $159K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +7bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-1.7M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$963K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-730K |
| Current Margin | -13.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -5.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $501K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-2.6M | $-1.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-2.6M | $-2.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-2.3M | $-201K | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-2.3M | $-911K | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-2.9M | $-5.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-2.9M | $-7.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 44 hospitals with 50-198 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=45)
- Comp margins: P25=-13.1% / P50=-3.6% / P75=4.5%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.