ASCENSION PROVIDENCE HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ASCENSION PROVIDENCE HOSPITAL is a 527-bed suburban community hospital in OAKLAND, MI with $849.3M in net patient revenue and a -6.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 24.5% Medicare, 3.1% Medicaid, and 72.3% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $62.5M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -6.5% to 0.8% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $849.3M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-55.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -6.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 78.4% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.6M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 30.3% |
| Distress Probability ML | 42.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MI has 163 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -5.2%. The target's margin of -6.5% places it below the state median. Among 24 size-comparable peers (264-1054 beds), the median margin is -7.1%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (264-1054), prioritizing same-state peers. 24 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASCENSION PROVIDENCE HOSPITAL (Target) | MI | 527 | $849.3M | -6.5% |
| UNIV OF MI HOSPITALS & HLTH CT | MI | 951 | $4.62B | -1.4% |
| HENRY FORD HOSPITAL | MI | 670 | $2.32B | -14.8% |
| WILLIAM BEAUMONT HOSPITAL- ROY | MI | 1026 | $1.56B | -0.8% |
| BRONSON METHODIST HOSPITAL | MI | 439 | $1.06B | -1.4% |
| TRINITY HEALTH ANN ARBOR | MI | 475 | $1.00B | -1.0% |
| EDWARD W. SPARROW HOSPITAL | MI | 425 | $936.1M | -24.5% |
| ASCENSION ST JOHN HOSPITAL | MI | 556 | $929.1M | -9.6% |
| WILLIAM BEAUMONT HOSPITAL - TR | MI | 484 | $747.4M | 2.3% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $62.5M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $17.8M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $17.0M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $16.8M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $10.3M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $544K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-55.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$62.5M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $7.0M |
| Current Margin | -6.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 0.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $32.6M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-85.5M | $258.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-85.5M | $256.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-76.9M | $435.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-76.9M | $452.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-94.0M | $-26.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-94.0M | $-59.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 24 hospitals with 264-1054 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=25)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.3% / P50=-7.1% / P75=-1.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.