REHAB HOSPITAL OF CAPE & ISLANDS
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
REHAB HOSPITAL OF CAPE & ISLANDS is a 60-bed rural/critical access in BARNSTABLE, MA with $44.3M in net patient revenue and a -17.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 64.6% Medicare, 3.6% Medicaid, and 31.8% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $3.3M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -17.0% to -9.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $44.3M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-7.5M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -17.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 66.3% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $738K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 43.7% |
| Distress Probability ML | 47.9% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MA has 99 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -12.2%. The target's margin of -17.0% places it below the state median. Among 37 size-comparable peers (30-120 beds), the median margin is -10.8%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (30-120), prioritizing same-state peers. 37 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REHAB HOSPITAL OF CAPE & ISLAN (Target) | MA | 60 | $44.3M | -17.0% |
| DANA-FARBER CANCER INSTITUTE | MA | 30 | $1.88B | -35.1% |
| EMERSON HOSPITAL | MA | 111 | $315.1M | -10.1% |
| MASSACHUSETTS EYE AND EAR INFI | MA | 41 | $263.9M | -36.1% |
| COOLEY DICKINSON HOSPITAL | MA | 118 | $233.6M | 2.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND BAPTIST HOSPITAL | MA | 75 | $221.2M | -4.6% |
| FALMOUTH HOSPITAL | MA | 81 | $172.1M | -2.2% |
| HENRY HEYWOOD MEMORIAL HOSPITA | MA | 114 | $135.6M | -28.8% |
| BIDMC-MILTON HOSPITAL INC | MA | 102 | $134.8M | -11.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.3M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $930K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $886K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $877K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $539K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $28K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-7.5M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.3M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-4.2M |
| Current Margin | -17.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -9.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.7M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-11.6M | $-16.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-11.6M | $-22.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-10.4M | $-15.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-10.4M | $-19.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-12.7M | $-29.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-12.7M | $-36.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 64.6% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 37 hospitals with 30-120 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=38)
- Comp margins: P25=-18.2% / P50=-10.8% / P75=1.5%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.