CONWAY REGIONAL REHABILITATION HOSPI
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
CONWAY REGIONAL REHABILITATION HOSPI is a 26-bed rural/critical access in FAULKNER, AR with $6.6M in net patient revenue and a 11.1% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 68.8% Medicare, 2.7% Medicaid, and 28.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $499K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 11.1% to 18.7% (+751bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $6.6M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $740K |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 11.1% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 46.1% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $255K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 73.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | 56.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
AR has 108 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -7.6%. The target's margin of 11.1% places it above the state median. Among 52 size-comparable peers (13-52 beds), the median margin is -15.1%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (13-52), prioritizing same-state peers. 52 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONWAY REGIONAL REHABILITATION (Target) | AR | 26 | $6.6M | 11.1% |
| ARKANSAS CHILDRENS NORTHWEST | AR | 24 | $113.6M | 7.2% |
| ARKANSAS SURGICAL HOSPITAL | AR | 47 | $75.1M | 11.7% |
| ENCORE MEDICAL CENTER | AR | 25 | $55.7M | -4.7% |
| OZARKS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL OF G | AR | 25 | $48.6M | -21.0% |
| DREW MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC | AR | 49 | $35.3M | -27.2% |
| ASHLEY COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER | AR | 25 | $33.7M | -23.0% |
| OZARK HEALTH INC | AR | 25 | $32.3M | -4.7% |
| FORREST CITY MEDICAL CENTER | AR | 48 | $30.3M | -17.3% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $499K (751bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $139K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $136K | +205bp | 12mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $133K | +200bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $81K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +14bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $740K |
| + RCM Uplift | +$499K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $1.2M |
| Current Margin | 11.1% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 18.7% |
| WC Released (1x) | $255K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $1.1M | $9.9M | 8.67x | 54.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $1.1M | $11.2M | 9.86x | 58.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $1.0M | $13.2M | 12.92x | 66.8% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $1.0M | $14.7M | 14.39x | 70.5% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $1.3M | $7.0M | 5.59x | 41.1% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $1.3M | $8.1M | 6.48x | 45.3% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 68.8% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 56.4% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 52 hospitals with 13-52 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=53)
- Comp margins: P25=-24.5% / P50=-15.1% / P75=-2.4%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.