JOHNSON REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
JOHNSON REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER is a 59-bed under-performing / distressed in JOHNSON, AR with $31.3M in net patient revenue and a -28.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 29.4% Medicare, 15.1% Medicaid, and 55.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $2.3M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -28.0% to -20.7% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $31.3M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-8.8M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -28.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 20.6% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $530K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 41.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | 59.8% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
AR has 108 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -7.6%. The target's margin of -28.0% places it below the state median. Among 35 size-comparable peers (30-118 beds), the median margin is -4.7%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (30-118), prioritizing same-state peers. 35 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHNSON REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTE (Target) | AR | 59 | $31.3M | -28.0% |
| ARKANSAS HEART HOSPITAL | AR | 112 | $205.9M | 1.2% |
| BHMC-CONWAY | AR | 108 | $94.7M | -15.6% |
| SILOAM SPRINGS MEMORIAL HOSPIT | AR | 64 | $85.0M | 8.4% |
| ARKANSAS SURGICAL HOSPITAL | AR | 47 | $75.1M | 11.7% |
| ST VINCENT NORTH | AR | 68 | $72.1M | -18.7% |
| ARKANSAS METHODIST MEDICAL CEN | AR | 114 | $68.8M | -11.8% |
| MEDICAL CENTER OF ARKANSAS | AR | 105 | $62.1M | -11.6% |
| ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATIO | AR | 80 | $36.3M | 27.9% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $2.3M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $656K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $625K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $619K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $380K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $20K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-8.8M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$2.3M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-6.5M |
| Current Margin | -28.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -20.7% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.2M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-13.5M | $-34.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-13.5M | $-42.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-12.1M | $-39.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-12.1M | $-46.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-14.8M | $-41.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-14.8M | $-50.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 20.6%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 59.8% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 35 hospitals with 30-118 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=36)
- Comp margins: P25=-17.5% / P50=-4.7% / P75=12.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.