Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 75% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Commercial Payer %. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $1.6M (vs $2.1M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $817K | $817K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $787K | $22K | $809K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $125K | $372K | $497K | $1.6M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $26K | $26K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 46.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $204K | $409K | $613K | $817K | $817K | $817K | $817K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $202K | $405K | $607K | $809K | $809K | $809K | $809K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $166K | $331K | $497K | $497K | $497K | $497K | $497K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $13K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $585K | $1.2M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $2.1M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 50% / 7.7x | 55% / 8.9x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x | 62% / 11.3x |
| 9.0x | 45% / 6.5x | 50% / 7.5x | 54% / 8.6x | 56% / 9.2x | 57% / 9.7x |
| 10.0x | 41% / 5.5x | 45% / 6.5x | 49% / 7.4x | 51% / 7.9x | 53% / 8.4x |
| 11.0x | 36% / 4.7x | 41% / 5.6x | 45% / 6.5x | 47% / 6.9x | 49% / 7.3x |
| 12.0x | 32% / 4.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 41% / 5.7x | 43% / 6.0x | 45% / 6.5x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 2% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 6.3x, adding 2.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $6.4M | — | $6.4M | 15.8% |
| Year 1 | $6.6M | +$1.4M | $8.1M | 19.7% |
| Year 2 | $6.8M | +$2.1M | $9.0M | 22.0% |
| Year 3 | $7.0M | +$2.1M | $9.2M | 22.5% |
| Year 4 | $7.2M | +$2.1M | $9.4M | 23.0% |
| Year 5 | $7.5M | +$2.1M | $9.6M | 23.5% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $409K | $613K | $817K | $981K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $405K | $607K | $809K | $971K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $249K | $373K | $497K | $597K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $13K | $20K | $26K | $31K |
| Total | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.1M | $2.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 217 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 15.8% | -11.8% | 1.5% | 11.7% | P82 |
| Net-to-Gross | 64.6% | 17.5% | 30.3% | 46.4% | P88 |
| Occupancy | 90.9% | 38.9% | 57.4% | 75.2% | P97 |
| Rev/Bed | $545K | $293K | $548K | $1.1M | P50 |
| Exp/Bed | $459K | $308K | $494K | $1.1M | P43 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.