Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 75% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Occupancy Rate. Risks: Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $17.2M (vs $23.0M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $8.7M | $8.7M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $8.4M | $240K | $8.6M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.3M | $4.0M | $5.3M | $16.8M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $280K | $280K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 38.6% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $2.2M | $4.4M | $6.6M | $8.7M | $8.7M | $8.7M | $8.7M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $2.2M | $4.3M | $6.5M | $8.6M | $8.6M | $8.6M | $8.6M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $1.8M | $3.5M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $140K | $280K | $280K | $280K | $280K | $280K | $280K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $6.3M | $12.5M | $18.6M | $23.0M | $23.0M | $23.0M | $23.0M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $23.0M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 42% / 5.8x | 47% / 6.8x | 51% / 7.8x | 53% / 8.3x | 55% / 8.8x |
| 9.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 42% / 5.7x | 46% / 6.6x | 48% / 7.0x | 50% / 7.5x |
| 10.0x | 32% / 4.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 41% / 5.6x | 43% / 6.0x | 45% / 6.4x |
| 11.0x | 27% / 3.3x | 32% / 4.1x | 37% / 4.8x | 39% / 5.2x | 41% / 5.5x |
| 12.0x | 23% / 2.8x | 28% / 3.5x | 33% / 4.1x | 35% / 4.5x | 37% / 4.8x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -21% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 7.8x, adding 0.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $288.9M | — | $288.9M | 66.1% |
| Year 1 | $297.5M | +$15.3M | $312.8M | 71.6% |
| Year 2 | $306.4M | +$23.0M | $329.4M | 75.4% |
| Year 3 | $315.6M | +$23.0M | $338.6M | 77.5% |
| Year 4 | $325.1M | +$23.0M | $348.1M | 79.7% |
| Year 5 | $334.9M | +$23.0M | $357.8M | 81.9% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $4.4M | $6.6M | $8.7M | $10.5M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $4.3M | $6.5M | $8.6M | $10.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $2.7M | $4.0M | $5.3M | $6.4M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $140K | $210K | $280K | $335K |
| Total | $11.5M | $17.2M | $23.0M | $27.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 49 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 66.1% | -17.6% | -4.8% | 12.4% | P98 |
| Net-to-Gross | 92.6% | 28.1% | 33.1% | 38.6% | P98 |
| Occupancy | 60.7% | 31.6% | 51.3% | 63.5% | P71 |
| Rev/Bed | $6.2M | $622K | $1.8M | $2.3M | P98 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.1M | $878K | $1.7M | $2.3M | P63 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.