Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 69% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Payer Diversity. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.9M (vs $1.3M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $505K | $505K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $486K | $14K | $500K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $78K | $230K | $307K | $969K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $16K | $16K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 36.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $126K | $253K | $379K | $505K | $505K | $505K | $505K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $125K | $250K | $375K | $500K | $500K | $500K | $500K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $102K | $205K | $307K | $307K | $307K | $307K | $307K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $8K | $16K | $16K | $16K | $16K | $16K | $16K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $362K | $724K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.3M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 53% / 8.3x | 57% / 9.6x | 61% / 10.9x | 63% / 11.6x | 65% / 12.2x |
| 9.0x | 48% / 7.0x | 52% / 8.2x | 56% / 9.3x | 58% / 9.9x | 60% / 10.5x |
| 10.0x | 43% / 6.0x | 48% / 7.0x | 52% / 8.1x | 54% / 8.6x | 56% / 9.1x |
| 11.0x | 39% / 5.2x | 44% / 6.1x | 48% / 7.0x | 50% / 7.5x | 52% / 8.0x |
| 12.0x | 35% / 4.5x | 40% / 5.3x | 44% / 6.2x | 46% / 6.6x | 48% / 7.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 9% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.9x, adding 2.5 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $3.1M | — | $3.1M | 12.4% |
| Year 1 | $3.2M | +$886K | $4.1M | 16.3% |
| Year 2 | $3.3M | +$1.3M | $4.6M | 18.4% |
| Year 3 | $3.4M | +$1.3M | $4.7M | 18.8% |
| Year 4 | $3.5M | +$1.3M | $4.9M | 19.2% |
| Year 5 | $3.6M | +$1.3M | $5.0M | 19.6% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $253K | $379K | $505K | $606K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $250K | $375K | $500K | $600K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $154K | $231K | $307K | $369K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $8K | $12K | $16K | $19K |
| Total | $664K | $997K | $1.3M | $1.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 188 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 12.4% | -9.2% | 2.2% | 11.6% | P76 |
| Net-to-Gross | 39.5% | 16.1% | 24.4% | 36.6% | P78 |
| Occupancy | 71.7% | 46.4% | 62.5% | 75.5% | P66 |
| Rev/Bed | $218K | $317K | $605K | $1.3M | P15 |
| Exp/Bed | $191K | $337K | $616K | $1.2M | P10 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.